| FIDE Grand Prix Tbilisi (2015) |
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Played in Tbilisi, Georgia 15-27 February 2015. This was the third tournament in the Grand Prix series 2014-15, the other ones being FIDE Grand Prix Baku (2014), FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent (2014) and FIDE Grand Prix Khanty-Mansiysk (2015). Each player collected Grand Prix points (GPP) from three of the four events. Official site: http://tbilisi2015.fide.com/en/main.... Crosstable: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 GPP
1 Tomashevsky * ½ ½ 1 ½ ½ 1 1 1 1 ½ ½ 8 170
2 Jakovenko ½ * ½ ½ ½ 1 ½ ½ ½ 1 ½ ½ 6½ 140
3 Radjabov ½ ½ * ½ ½ ½ ½ 1 ½ ½ ½ ½ 6 110
=4 Kasimdzhanov 0 ½ ½ * ½ ½ 1 0 ½ ½ 1 ½ 5½ 75
=4 Dominguez ½ ½ ½ ½ * ½ ½ ½ ½ 0 ½ 1 5½ 75
=4 Giri ½ 0 ½ ½ ½ * ½ ½ ½ ½ 1 ½ 5½ 75
=4 Mamedyarov 0 ½ ½ 0 ½ ½ * 1 1 0 ½ 1 5½ 75
=8 Grischuk 0 ½ 0 1 ½ ½ 0 * ½ 1 ½ ½ 5 40
=8 Vachier-Lagrave 0 ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ 0 ½ * 1 ½ ½ 5 40
=8 Jobava 0 0 ½ ½ 1 ½ 1 0 0 * 1 ½ 5 40
11 Svidler ½ ½ ½ 0 ½ 0 ½ ½ ½ 0 * 1 4½ 20
12 Andreikin ½ ½ ½ ½ 0 ½ 0 ½ ½ ½ 0 * 4 10
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| page 1 of 3; games 1-25 of 66 |
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Feb-27-15
 | | alexmagnus: Thing is, if someone of the first two als gets into the World Cup final, the third place gets the spot. It is not "two best", it is "two best who are not among the finalists of the World Cup" :) |
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| Feb-27-15 | | Chuckles: Even Dominguez could theoretically finish with the second-most points. If he's the sole winner he'll get to 255, which could surpass Caruana and Naka if they finish right near the bottom of the table. It's not <too> far-fetched for someone like Grischuk to reach the second spot. A win gives him 292, and for example if Nakamura repeats his 82 points from Baku, he'd only have 289. |
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| Feb-27-15 | | starry2013: keypusher: <I see Wesley So is seeded into the 2015 World Cup, and can qualify for the Candidates that way. But that ain't easy. If he keeps playing the way he has, I kind of wish the organizers give him the wild card, but I suppose that's a no-hoper.> With the politics of wildcards in Fide events it's a definite no hoper. |
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| Feb-27-15 | | parmetd: Not true Chuckles because Carauna and Toma have the event left as well. |
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| Feb-27-15 | | gokusano: This is a boring system. Candidates should be picked from zonals and interzonals. Europeans are cherry picked. Why does european championship serves as a basis for qualification? What about the non-europeans? Some asian talents can give these wild cherry picked a serious sound beating. Give credence to non-europeans! |
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| Feb-27-15 | | kummatmebro: Wit a minute since the WcH Match is going tob e held in America, does that mean we won't see that hot redhead Karlovich? |
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| Feb-27-15 | | Chuckles: <parmetd: Not true Chuckles because Carauna and Toma have the event left as well.> Yes, it is true. Caruana and Toma could do very poorly; Caruana could be passed by anyone playing in the last event, and Toma could be passed by anyone other than Dominguez. It's not necessarily too likely, but we've already seen players do very well in one grand prix event and poorly in another. Gelfand was equal first in Baku and then only got 15 points in Tashkent; Andreikin was clear first in Tashkent, but only got 30 points total in his other two events. |
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Feb-27-15
 | | Penguincw: Standings after 3 tournaments
Tomashevsky, 252
Mamedyarov, 235
~~~
Caruana, 230
Radjabov, 210
Nakamura, 207
Andreikin, 200
Gelfand, 170
Jakovenk, 170
Karjakin, 157
Kasimdzhanov, 125
Grischuk, 122
Jobava, 115
Giri, 115
MVL, 115
Svidler, 102
LDP, 85
Standings after 3 tournaments by <average> # of points Tomashevsky, 126
Caruana, 115
~~~
Nakamura, 104
Gelfand, 85
Jakovenko, 85
Karjakin, 79
Mamedyarov, 78
Radjabov, 70
Andreikin, 67
Grischuk, 61
Jobava, 58
Giri, 58
MVL, 58
Svidler, 51
LDP, 43
Kasimdzhanov, 42
Tomashevsky, Caruana and Nakamura stand out as the players that are mostly likely to qualify, but everyone except for Radjabov and Kasimdzhanov have a chance (though I'm just blindly looking at the percentages through 10 rounds of this tournament). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet... |
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| Feb-28-15 | | Everett: Andreikin and Svidler must be disappointed. |
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| Feb-28-15 | | Everett: Going to be a great last tournament in the Grand Prix. |
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| Feb-28-15 | | Kinghunt: I was interested in the chances of the remaining players to qualify for the Candidates, so I wrote a script to simulate final standings based on the outcome of the next tournament. I am looking at the top three places here, because there's a good chance one of the top two finishers could win the World Cup, making the third spot quite possibly a qualifying spot. I assign places completely randomly in the final Grand Prix, without taking rating or other signs of player strength into account, to focus on the necessary scoring relative to other players. This means stronger players likely have their chances slightly understated, but nevertheless does a good job of showing how many different things need to happen for player X to advance to the Candidates. Here are the numbers:
Player 1st% 2nd% 3rd% total %
Tomashevsky 39.98 29.23 18.14 87.35
Caruana 24.42 20.27 18.41 63.1
Nakamura 16.35 14.34 17.11 47.8
Gelfand 6.09 8.47 8.0 22.56
Jakovenko 6.51 8.17 7.63 22.31
Karjakin 4.81 7.72 6.13 18.66
Grischuk 0.71 3.55 5.41 9.67
Giri 0.37 2.61 5.46 8.44
Jobava 0.27 2.37 4.77 7.41
Vachier-Lagrave 0.38 2.19 4.49 7.06
Svidler 0.11 1.06 3.46 4.63
Dominguez 0 0.02 0.85 0.87
Mamedyarov 0 0 0.14 0.14
Andreikin 0 0 0 0
Kasimidzhanov 0 0 0 0
Radjabov 0 0 0 0
So while a lot of people technically have a chance of qualifying, only 6 (Tomashevsky, Caruana, Nakamura, Gelfand, Jakovenko, and Karjakin) have better than a 1 in 10 chance of finishing in at least third place. Note also the extremely high chance of Tomashevsky qualifying in one way or another - ~70% chance of finishing either first or second, plus another ~20% chance of getting the possibly qualifying third spot. |
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| Feb-28-15 | | parmetd: No. It is not true. Carauna is guaranteed 10 points just by showing up and making the 1st move. In addition, to Carauna needing last place so does Nakamura. Also start placing the rest of the opponents into the standings and you will see it is mathematically impossible. |
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| Feb-28-15 | | lainulo: <This is a boring system. Candidates should be picked from zonals and interzonals.> I concur.
FIDE would have it otherwise:
<Rules & regulations for the Candidates Tournament of the FIDE World Championship cycle 2014-20161. Organisation
1. 1 The Candidates Tournament to determine the challenger for the 2016 World Chess Championship Match shall be organised
in the first quarter of 2016 and represents an integral part of the World Chess Championship regulations for the cycle 2014-
2016. Eight (8) players will participate in the Candidates Tournament and the winner qualifies for the World Chess
Championship Match in the last quarter of 2016.
2. Qualification for the 2016 Candidates Tournament
The players who qualify for the Candidates Tournament are determined according to the following, in order of priority: 2. 1 World Championship Match 2014 - The player who lost the 2014 World Championship Match qualifies. 2. 2 World Cup 2015 - The two (2) top winners of the World Cup 2015 qualify. In case one of the two top winners of the World
Cup qualifies from 2.1 above, then the qualification spot goes to 3rd place of the World Cup. 2. 3 FIDE Grand-Prix 2014/2015 - The two (2) top players from the FIDE Grand-Prix 2014/2015 qualify to participate. In case
any of the two top winners of the FIDE Grand-Prix qualify from 2.1 or 2.2 above, then the qualification spot(s) are given to
the next player(s) in the final standings of the Grand-Prix. 2. 4 Average FIDE Rating List of the 12 monthly lists starting from 1st January 2015 to 1st December 2015 - Two (2)
players qualify to participate by rating (excluding the players who qualify from articles 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 above). A player can
qualify by rating only if he/she participates in the World Cup 2015 or the FIDE Grand Prix 2014-2015. For the purpose of
deciding the 2 rated player qualifiers, the average from the following twelve FIDE rating lists will be used: the sum of all 12
monthly lists starting from 1st January 2015 to 1st December 2015 divided by 12. A minimum of thirty (30) rated games in
total is required for each player in the 12 monthly rating periods. In case of equality, two decimals will be taken into
consideration. If the numbers are still equal then the total number of games in all 12 rating periods shall be decisive. That
means the player with the greater number of games shall qualify. 2. 5 One nominated player by the Organiser - A player, nominated by the organiser, with a rating of at least 2725 in the FIDE
rating list of 1st July 2015.
2. 6 Replacements - If any replacement is needed due to withdrawal or refusal of participation, the first reserve player from the
final standings of the FIDE Grand-Prix 2014/2015 will be invited. Any futher replacement needed will be fulfilled from the
average rating list described in article 2.4 above.> I say scrap the following:
- The player who lost the 2014 World Championship Match qualifies. < he had his chance and blew it. He should exert extra effort by playing in the world cup or getting one of two highest average elo rating> - FIDE Grand-Prix 2014/2015. <too many handpicked participants (i.e. 5 nominees by sponsors)>
http://www.fide.com/component/conte... - One nominated player by the Organiser. <another nominee> That left us with:
- the world cup 2015 and;
- 2015 monthly average FIDE rating
... as legitimate modes for qualification
- 4 qualifiers each ... total of 8.
I still prefer the old system of course (i.e. zonals, interzonals and matchplay) as this would give barracudas a chance to ply goldfish waters...but we do not leave in a perfect world do we? |
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| Feb-28-15 | | lainulo: <but we do not leave in a perfect world do we?> This grand prix event in particular is but a breeding ground for opportunities for FIDE to earn extra income and put money inside its pocket. This is a waste of coverage and space. Everyone who has posted here sans yours truly are clueless that they were part of the muppets show. |
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| Feb-28-15 | | Chuckles: <parmetd: No. It is not true. Carauna is guaranteed 10 points just by showing up and making the 1st move. In addition, to Carauna needing last place so does Nakamura. Also start placing the rest of the opponents into the standings and you will see it is mathematically impossible.> Just to be clear, we're talking about Dominguez making the candidates, i.e. finishing second in the grand prix, right? In the last tournament, if he wins, that's 255 for him. If Caruana gets 12th or 11th, he'll be below 255. If Nakamura gets 9th or worse, he'll be below 255. You can place the others similarly so that Dominguez ends up in second spot. |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Pedro Fernandez: <<dumbgai>:Un torneo por desgracia aburrido.> Why? |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Pedro Fernandez: << SirRuthless>: Replace 'Tomashevsky' with 'Carlsen' on your screen and there you go. Now, for most of the chess fanbase, you have an interesting tournament.> That's right my friend.
Ps. Carlsen at this moment is untouchable, and I don't know for what time. BTW, Carlsen is a lot intelligent (not so much than Fischer), he is not going to commit Capablanca mistakes, and he has the power of a Stenitz on the XXI Century! |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Kinghunt: Dominguez can indeed finish the Grand Prix in second place, but a lot of things need to go right for him. As you can see in my previous post, there is about a 0.02% chance that will happen (assuming random placings in the final event) - incredibly unlikely, but definitely theoretically possible. |
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Mar-01-15
| | alexmagnus: <as this would give barracudas a chance to ply goldfish waters> The World Cup gives this chance, but despite its bad reputation as a "lottery" never did it qualify a barracuda for the Candidates :) |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Rolfo: < alexmagnus: <as this would give barracudas a chance to ply goldfish waters>
The World Cup gives this chance, but despite its bad reputation as a "lottery" never did it qualify a barracuda for the Candidates > Right. But as So now has entered goldfish waters there should be new opportunities for him :) |
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| Mar-01-15 | | MarkFinan: Tomasevsky was 100/1 to win this tournament, here at chessgames dot com. I guess it was something similar in the real bookies. All the people here who are constantly in the top 10 every leg, and obviously know both about chess and gambling, should take note.. unless they already have. |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Strongest Force: Anything <big> happening this month or next? |
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| Mar-01-15 | | Kinghunt: <Strongest Force: Anything <big> happening this month or next?> There's the Petrov Memorial Rapid next week, with Ivanchuk, Karjakin, Mamedyarov, Tomashevsky, Morozevich, Gelfand, Rapport, and Malakhov. And then the US championship towards the end of the month will feature an interesting battle between Nakamura and So. But if you want a tournament truly super, you have to wait six weeks until the Gashimov Memorial starts in mid-April, with Carlsen, Caruana, Giri, Topalov, So, Anand, Kramnik, Vachier-Lagrave, Mamedyarov, and Radjabov. |
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| Mar-01-15 | | whiteshark: The recent standing in the GP can be seen here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_G... (Any person playing in the last Grand Prix might still end up in the top two places. Mamedyarov will be overtaken by Caruana.) |
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| Mar-02-15 | | whiteshark: <Who can win the FIDE Grand Prix?> https://chess24.com/en/read/news/wh... |
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