AylerKupp: <offramp> ...Black has avoided immediate mate.> Yes, and not only has Black avoided mate but according to Stockfish 12 the best White could theoretically do is go for the draw by repetition after 25.Re2 Qg1+ 26.Re1 Qf2 etc. Or, Black could try for more after 25.Re2 Qd4 but there isn't anything more there according to Stockfish at d=35 with most moves pretty well forced: 26.Re8+ Kxd7 27.Re7+ (now White will eventually wreck havoc with Black's 7th rank pawns) 27...Kd6 28.Ne8+ Kxd5 29.c4+ Qxc4 30.Bxc4+ Kxc4 31.Nd6+ Kxb4 32.Nxc8 Rxc8 33.Rxf7 a5 34.Rxg7 Rd8+ 35.Kc1 Rf8 36.Rxh7 Rf1+ 37.Kb2 Rf2+ (returning the favor) 38.Kb1 Rxg2 39.Rh4+ Kc3 40.Rh3+ Kc4 41.Rh4+ and most likely also a draw by repetition.
 click for larger viewAnd if White does not go for the draw by repetition he will likely lose. Stockfish evaluates the resulting positions after either 25.Rf1 or 25.Nxa8 at [-3.45] and [-3.78] respectively as theoretical losses for White. Could White do better then 21.Qxc6 in the following position after 20...Nc6?
 click for larger viewNot according to Stockfish. It considers 21.Qxc6 to be White's "best" move although at d=38 it evaluates it at [-6.67], still theoretical losing for White And it evaluates its other top 4 moves as also theoretically losing, with evaluations ranging from [-10.48] to [-13.33] after 21.exd7, 21.Qq5, 21.c3, and 21.Qb3 respectively. Another position that intrigued me was 14...Qxf2:
 click for larger viewSurely with White having a lead in development and Black's king exposed in the middle, Black can't afford to go pawn grabbing, can he? Well, Stockfish as Black thought it could, evaluating the resulting position at d=35 after 14...Qxf2 as even, [0.00], after 15.Rd1 Nc6 16.Kb1 Qf4 17.Nc7 Qxe5 18.N3d5+ exd5 19.Nxa8 Nf6 20.b5 Ne4 21.Rd3 Bf5 22.bxc6 bxc6 23.Qxa7+ Kf6 24.Nc7 Nc3+ 25.Rxc3 Qxc3 26.Bd3 Qb4+ 27.Kc1 Bxd3 28.cxd3 Qc3+ 29.Kb1 Qxd3+ 30.Kb2 Qd2+ 31.Kb3 Kg6 32.Qb7 Qd3+ 33.Kb2 Qe2+ 34.Ka3 Qd3+ and a likely draw by repetition, although I'm not even going to attempt to determine possible reasonable alternatives to the move sequence above. It just seems too complicated and time consuming to do.
 click for larger viewAs far as alternatives Stockfish evaluated 15.Rd3 at [-0.53], with Black having a theoretically small advantage. It evaluated other top 3 moves; 15.Rd2, 15.15.Rd6, and 15.Nc7 as all theoretically won for Black at [-2.02], -[2.23], and [-2.28] respectively. And indeed 14...Qxf2 seems to be Black's best chance. Stockfish at d=35 evaluated Black's other top 4 moves; between [+1.72] (White theoretically having a significant advantage) and [+4.03] (White theoretically having a winning advantage} after 14...Rd8, 14...a6, 14...Nc6, and 14.g5 respectively. From my patzer's perspective it must have taken Dreibergs having nerves of steel, not to mention precise calculation, to play 14...Qxf2. All in all a fascinating game. Perhaps between 14...Qxf2 and 21.Qxc6 White objectively overreached since after 14...Qxf2 White could have theoretically drawn the game and after 21.Qxc6 he should have theoretically lost it. If I get the chance I'll try to analyze the positions between those 2 moves and see where Mikenas might have gone wrong. |