Here's my two cents: For chess to be 'solved,' we don't need to finish every game to completion. It would be nearly sufficient to simply demonstrate that a given position is won or drawn without going through all the near infinite gory details.

Examples of what I mean: If one side sacrifices a queen for no compensation, we can just say that the other side wins as long as we play out a few moves to make sure there really is no compensation. Games like 1.e3 e5 2.e4 are really just like 1.e4 e5 but with colors reversed. The games are of no independent significance, but add to the total a lot. Also, games like 1.Nf3 Nf6 2.Ng1 Ng8 just end up wasting a lot of resources if we study them.

And for my final penny, in computer science there are ways of classifying problems based on the size of the input compared to the amount of space or time needed to compute the answer. For example, if you have a list of N items in random order, finding a specific item would require the computer to traverse the entire list until it found it. This would take some multiple of N units of time (1 unit of time to read in the next item on the list, some more units of time to compare, and then another unit to decide to move on or that we found it). It would also take N units of space plus change (1 unit for each item in the list and maybe some more to store the item you are looking for).

One class of problems is called P. Problems in P are solvable in polynomial time, meaning that for input size N, the upperbound of time required is some polynomial with respect to N (such as 4N, or 3N^6-5N^4+N^3+N/8, etc). Another class of problems is creatively called NP, or not polynomial, I believe. These problems require more than a polynomial amount of time, something like exponential time (4^N, for example).

Chess is definitely a problem in NP. After every move you make, there is exponentially more games possible. Currently, no one has been able to prove if P=NP or if P != NP (where != means not equal to). That is, we don't know if there is a way to transform problems that are now in NP into something solvable in P. If NP=P, then many problems (like cracking security things on the Internet, or chess) would become solvable in a reasonable amount of time (i.e. before we die). It is believed, however, that NP!=P.

This leaves us with finding a new way to solve problems. Computers as we know them may get faster, but exponential problems will remain huge and take loooooooong times to solve. Quantum computers, as someone alluded to earlier, may be a solution. But for now, we haven't been able to build one (at least as far as I know).

Let's say it's discovered the 1.e4 wins for white and nothing else does. Fine, I'll play 1.d4 against you. Do you know the refutation? Let's say it lies within the Nimzo-Indian, so you play 1...Nf6. Ok then, I'll played the Tromp (2.Bg5) and see if you know how to refute that.

The point is, in order for chess to die amongst humans, all players would need to know the refutations of all non-winning lines. And I highly doubt this would ever happen even at the GM level.

Sorry, but this is simply not true. With our current knowledge and computing abilities, chess is too large to solve. But if new techniques are developed so that either we can simplify the problem of chess into something much smaller or make computers work magnitudes faster (eg quantum computers), then chess no longer will be all that hard of a problem to solve.

Two words: Alan Turing.

Just like mathematicians can prove theorems that includes the infinity of numbers (like proving the prime number theorem without using brute force), I think it is possible to solve chess in a similar manner.

I remember an episode on Star Trek the Next Generation where Data stalemates a top strategical alien in a game. Data went for the draw and not a win because he deduced both that he cannot lose this way (he calculated an absolute drawing strategy) and that if both players played with the best strategy anyway the game will result in a stalemate. He did this because he lost previously to the alien and didn't know why. He then realized that he lost because he was going for a win and thus left himself open for losing. He thus used the principles for optimal strategy from game theory and drew the game.

In chess, without brute force, it can be proven for many positions that if played with the given strategy, a certain result will always be the outcome. This can be the case even though the number of moves (or positions) that can arise from it is beyond today's computer processing power. But we humans can see the solution relatively easy. We can even easily explain the plan that will guarantee the result without giving any variations. Thus we can create a somewhat proof of why the result(s) will happen no matter what (assuming we are to follow the given plan /rules).

Here is the suggestion:

One way is to find a perfect setup(s) for black and then prove that the setup(s) cannot lose if certain plans/rules are applied to it regardless of white's tempi (there may be many of them but they must be feasible to learn, record in books, and or program). This proof will take into consideration every possible strategy against the setup. For example, these strategies may include pawn break trys, exchanging, etc.

The setup(s) may be even only compromised (where the rules don't apply anymore) at the cost of severe material lost of white where no compensation exists. If this is the case then one should accept this event as a non-lose situation (as an axiom) just like, for example, many accept that a king with queen, rook, and pawns is a win (always) against a king with rook unless there is a mate in 1 by the side with king and rook.

The proof must contain that the required setup(s) cannot be stopped from existing without creating a huge axiomatic disadvantage. In other words, without the cost of decisive material, white cannot stop black from achieving the required setup(s). This may be the most complicated thing of the proof. It may need a supercomputer to prove it using brute force. Or then again it may be proven using some simple rules and or with a few variations.

In Alan Moore's otherwise excellent Swamp Thing series, the Swamp Thing plays himself in a series of games when he is stranded on an unihabited planet, but every single game ends in a stalemate - not just a draw, but a stalemate!

Now, I could accept an argument that two equally strong players might conceivably play draw after draw against each other, although even that is unlikely, but repeated stalemates?! Yeah, right.

1. White has an advantage because he moves first. With best play, this ought to mean that white should always win.

2. Black has an advantage because white moves first and so black can adapt his strategy to whatever white plays. With best play, black should always win.

3. The advantage/ disadvantage of the first move is insufficient. With best play, all games should end in a draw.