johnlspouge: Sunday (Insane): White to play and win
Material: even. The White Qh6 has infiltrated Black's K-side and, given support, would have access to f8 and g7. The Rd1 has a discovered attack on Rd7, if the Nd4 moves, but presently ...Rxd1 is check. The Nd4 has the attractive square e6, supporting mate threats by the Qh6, but the Black Qa2 controls e6. The Nh5 has only one square, g7.
Candidates (33.): b3, Rc1
threatening 34.Rc8+ Kf7 35.Qf8# and 34.Rc7
33...Ng7 34.Rc8+ Kf7 35.Qxh7
threatening 36.Qg8+ Ke7 37.Qxa2 and 37.Qf8#, so the Q must move to avoid 35...Ke7 36.Qxg7+, with more material to come.
35...Qb1+ [Qa1+ is worse] 36.Kh2 Rxd4 37.Qg8+ Ke7 38.Qxg7+
and now, 38...Ke6 [Kd6 39.Rd8+] 39.Rc6+ loses the Rd4 without perpetual check.
All of the line is forced after 33...Ng7, so let's check the alternatives to meeting the original threat after 33.Rc1.
33...Rd8 34.Rc7 threatening 35.Qxh7 is fatal.
33...R other loses the Qa2 to the skewer threat after the original line, following 33...Ng7. Black has only one move.
33...Qd5 [Q other 34.Rc8+ leads to mate]
34.Rc8+ Rd8 [else, 35.Qxh7 wins at least a P] 35.Rc7+ Rd7
36.Ne6 (threatening 37.Qf8#) Kf7 [Qxe6 37.Rc8+ leads to Qf8#] [Ng7 37.Rc8+ threatening 38.Nxg7 and 38.Qxg7# wins]
37.Qxh7+ Kxe6 [Ng7 38.Qxg7+ does not help] 38.Qg8+ Kf5 [Kd6 39.Rxd7+ loses the Qd5] 39.Qc8 (pinning the Rd7 and threatening 40.Qxd7] Ke6 40.Qe8+ is curtains.
Time to peek. After 33.Rc1, I must have examined everything but the game line. LOL. Well, at least you now know why Nikolic played Qa6 ;>) The tough part of my analysis was justifying 36.Ne6, which is a very attractive move. Too bad Kovacevic never had to play it.
Time to check the kibitzing.
<dzechiel: I would really like to know how much of this combination Kovacevic saw when he made the first move.>
I believe 33.Rc1 can be made with complete confidence and without much calculation. The move 33.Rc1 is easily the most aggressive of the alternatives, and it throws Black completely on the defensive. I hunger for the mental exercise of calculating the juicy combinations CG throws out, and hence I calculate consequences, even for a move like 33.Rc1. I looked at 33.b3 briefly first, e.g., but it is a lot less aggressive and no more positional than 33.Rc1.
<An Englishman: Still not convinced this is a forced win; perhaps a silicon monster can assist.> <MostlyAverageJoe: white had a completely crushing 39.Qh6!>
I believe my lines win demonstrate a win for White on every alternative, except 33...Qa6. (Although in one line I contented myself with demonstrating a P gain, the line forces the Black K to run in the open.) My impression is that there is just enough flame to burn Black completely, and I would be surprised if 33...Qa6 were a saving clause. In particular, if <MAJ> has closed off 33...Qa6, I do not believe anything else is going to save Black.
<znprdx: Finally!! ...there is a glimmer of hope in the general acknowledgment by many today both directly and indirectly, that maybe - just maybe – it is NOT necessary to presume that when a player makes a strong, often unexpected, even unique key move to a potentially winning sequence, that ALL was seen and calculated...>
Replace "ALL" with "NOT ALL", and you have my side of our continuing discussion.
Your statement today is noticeably weaker than previous statements, and quite appropriately so. In particular, I do not disagree with it. A little mysticism supported by a lot of critical logic is a very healthy mix.